MODEL VERDICT
Ameren Corporation (AEE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $113.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $110.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $110.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $105.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $99.91 | Below threshold | +4.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 38 industry peers | $112.73 | -0.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 36 industry peers | $73.00 | -35.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 31 industry peers | $99.91 | -11.8% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 38 analyst estimates | $96.05 | -15.2% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 36 industry peers | $21.90 | -80.7% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 21 industry peers | $91.03 | -19.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $27.11 | -76.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 38 industry peers | $112.73 | -0.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.14 | -16.9% | 100% | 90 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $94 | $105 | $116 | $127 | $138 |
| Conservative (6%) | $96 | $108 | $119 | $130 | $141 |
| Base Case (8.9%) | $99 | $111 | $122 | $134 | $146 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $102 | $114 | $126 | $138 | $150 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.75 | 21.48 | 16.52 | 23.18 | 2.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.63 | 21.92 | 18.64 | 23.80 | 1.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.82 | 12.72 | 11.62 | 14.00 | 0.81 |
| P/FFO | 9.04 | 9.19 | 7.18 | 10.11 | 1.01 |
| P/TBV | 2.17 | 2.24 | 1.72 | 2.44 | 0.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.08 | 2.14 | 1.66 | 2.33 | 0.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.11 | 3.13 | 2.54 | 3.59 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AEE's fair value at $94.14 vs the current price of $113.28, implying -16.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $82.80 (P10) to $112.42 (P90), with a median of $95.93.
AEE's current P/E of 21.2x compares to the industry median of 21.1x (38 peers in the group). This represents a +0.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.7x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
22 analysts cover AEE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $115.25 (range: $104.00 — $127.00), implying +1.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 16.6% is 1.5 percentage points above the 7-year average (15.1%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$101. (2) Multiple compression: AEE trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.7×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AEE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1080.0% to approximately $101. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.