MODEL VERDICT
The AES Corporation (AES)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $14.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $28.49 | +99.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $19.97 | +39.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $26.06 | +82.5% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $43.25 | +202.9% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $25.63 | +79.5% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $259.70 | +1718.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $52.63 | +268.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $28.26 | +97.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.92 | +207.6% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (31%) | $12 | $15 | $18 | $22 | $25 |
| Conservative (51%) | $13 | $17 | $21 | $25 | $29 |
| Base Case (78.3%) | $16 | $20 | $25 | $29 | $34 |
| Bull Case (106%) | $18 | $23 | $29 | $34 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 90.35 | 44.22 | 5.45 | 335.71 | 138.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.83 | 24.74 | 15.21 | 46.44 | 11.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.74 | 11.14 | 9.42 | 12.18 | 1.05 |
| P/FFO | 14.91 | 10.00 | 3.11 | 37.89 | 12.49 |
| P/TBV | 4.66 | 4.04 | 1.07 | 8.35 | 2.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.57 | 2.54 | 0.86 | 4.27 | 1.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.22 | 1.30 | 0.75 | 1.62 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates AES's fair value at $43.92 vs the current price of $14.28, implying +207.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.02 (P10) to $63.75 (P90), with a median of $38.29.
AES's current P/E of 11.3x compares to the industry median of 22.6x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -49.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 90.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover AES with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.25 (range: $16.00 — $23.00), implying +27.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AES's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (2.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18650.0% to approximately $41. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.