MODEL VERDICT
Aflac Incorporated (AFL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $112.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $114.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $114.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $112.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $110.70 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $87.15 | -22.8% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $95.63 | -15.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $66.90 | -40.7% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $103.97 | -7.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $87.15 | -22.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $63.72 | -43.6% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $28.48 | -74.8% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $81.87 | -27.5% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $82.53 | -26.9% | 100% | 90 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $91 | $104 | $118 | $132 | $146 |
| Conservative (5%) | $93 | $108 | $122 | $136 | $151 |
| Base Case (0.5%) | $89 | $103 | $117 | $130 | $144 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $89 | $103 | $117 | $131 | $144 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.80 | 10.60 | 6.67 | 16.14 | 2.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.75 | 9.31 | 8.14 | 13.08 | 1.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.45 | 9.31 | 8.14 | 11.03 | 1.02 |
| P/FCF | 13.18 | 11.83 | 5.35 | 22.96 | 7.06 |
| P/TBV | 2.05 | 2.25 | 0.95 | 3.42 | 0.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.75 | 1.99 | 0.95 | 2.28 | 0.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.35 | 2.40 | 1.43 | 3.36 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates AFL's fair value at $82.53 vs the current price of $112.88, implying -26.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $82.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $76.35 (P10) to $92.86 (P90), with a median of $84.64.
AFL's current P/E of 16.5x compares to the industry median of 12.8x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +29.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.8x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
32 analysts cover AFL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $110.83 (range: $99.00 — $120.00), implying -1.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (18), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AFL trades at the 7220th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.8×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AFL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3180.0% to approximately $77. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.