MODEL VERDICT
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $67.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $63.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $64.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $59.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $48.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $11.16 | -83.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $3.10 | -95.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $11.69 | -82.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $15.02 | -77.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22.78 | -66.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $3.06 | -95.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $10.90 | -83.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.84 | -81.0% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 378× | 414× | 450× (Current) | 486× | 522× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $59 | $65 | $70 | $76 | $81 |
| Conservative (7%) | $60 | $66 | $72 | $78 | $83 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 | $86 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $64 | $70 | $77 | $83 | $89 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.22 | 8.64 | 1.36 | 13.61 | 4.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.49 | 6.91 | 1.04 | 10.52 | 3.53 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.66 | 8.12 | 2.02 | 31.13 | 11.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates AFRM's fair value at $12.84 vs the current price of $67.54, implying -81.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.84 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.34 (P10) to $18.22 (P90), with a median of $13.34.
AFRM's current P/E of 450.3x compares to the industry median of 20.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +2081.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
33 analysts cover AFRM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $80.77 (range: $55.00 — $100.00), implying +19.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AFRM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.