MODEL VERDICT
Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $46.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $51.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $49.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $59.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $81.80 | Below threshold | -29.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $17.00 | -63.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $1.47 | -96.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $3.45 | -92.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $25.86 | -45.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $9.31 | -80.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $8.39 | -82.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $23.79 | -49.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $3.49 | -92.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $26.93 | -42.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.60 | -68.9% | 100% | 66 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 263× | 288× | 313× (Current) | 338× | 363× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $41 | $45 | $49 | $53 | $57 |
| Conservative (7%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $43 | $48 | $52 | $56 | $60 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $45 | $49 | $53 | $58 | $62 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.22 | 8.64 | 1.36 | 13.61 | 4.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.49 | 6.91 | 1.04 | 10.52 | 3.53 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.66 | 8.12 | 2.02 | 31.13 | 11.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates AFRM's fair value at $14.60 vs the current price of $46.98, implying -68.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 66/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.63 (P10) to $26.57 (P90), with a median of $20.39.
AFRM's current P/E of 313.2x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +1263.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover AFRM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $84.40 (range: $55.00 — $105.00), implying +79.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (21), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 66/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AFRM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.