MODEL VERDICT
First Majestic Silver Corp. (AG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $19.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $20.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $21.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $21.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $20.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $11.63 | -41.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $17.14 | -13.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $2.32 | -88.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $2.14 | -89.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $19.14 | -3.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $19.50 | -1.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $2.30 | -88.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.39 | -37.6% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 30.47 | 23.32 | 13.27 | 70.40 | 23.17 |
| P/FFO | 55.83 | 48.63 | 23.99 | 94.85 | 32.04 |
| P/TBV | 2.13 | 1.82 | 1.20 | 3.73 | 1.02 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.13 | 1.82 | 1.20 | 3.73 | 1.02 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.59 | 3.51 | 2.89 | 7.91 | 1.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates AG's fair value at $12.39 vs the current price of $19.85, implying -37.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.08 (P10) to $19.21 (P90), with a median of $13.88.
AG's current P/E of -58.4x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -396.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover AG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $26.50 (range: $23.00 — $30.00), implying +33.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.