MODEL VERDICT
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $80.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $83.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $84.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $83.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $81.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $65.55 | -18.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $119.93 | +48.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $52.81 | -34.7% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 4 industry peers | $49.43 | -38.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $64.30 | -20.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $118.77 | +46.9% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $63.98 | -20.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $57.92 | -28.4% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $74.89 | -7.4% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $57 | $72 | $86 | $101 | $115 |
| Conservative (7%) | $59 | $74 | $89 | $103 | $118 |
| Base Case (11.4%) | $61 | $77 | $92 | $107 | $122 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $63 | $79 | $95 | $111 | $127 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.73 | 9.58 | 6.08 | 32.43 | 9.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.62 | 9.37 | 7.58 | 47.43 | 14.53 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.62 | 9.37 | 7.58 | 47.43 | 14.53 |
| P/FCF | 40.96 | 9.67 | 9.22 | 103.99 | 54.58 |
| P/FFO | 13.62 | 9.30 | 7.24 | 29.47 | 9.15 |
| P/TBV | 0.70 | 0.76 | 0.42 | 0.91 | 0.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.68 | 0.74 | 0.40 | 0.88 | 0.16 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.81 | 5.32 | 2.50 | 6.00 | 1.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates AGO's fair value at $74.89 vs the current price of $80.86, implying -7.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $74.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.54 (P10) to $88.80 (P90), with a median of $77.17.
AGO's current P/E of 11.8x compares to the industry median of 9.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +23.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.7x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
9 analysts cover AGO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $94.00 (range: $94.00 — $94.00), implying +16.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AGO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (45.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1780.0% to approximately $95. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.