ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD (AHL)
Valuation Overview•Is ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 67/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
AHL demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($539M) and minimal debt risk.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (7.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (111.8% EPS 3Y CAGR). Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 14.2%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $821.5M | +10.5% | +7.3% | +5.7% | +2.0% | |
| EBITDA | $158.6M | — | +67.6% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $122.0M | -9.1% | +153.6% | — | +3.2% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.21 | -46.7% | +111.8% | — | -0.1% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$5.5M | +70.2% | +5.3% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 35.4% | 28.8% | 24.1% | 21.6% |
| Operating Margin | 14.2% | 9.1% | 5.5% | 2.1% |
| Net Margin | 14.1% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 2.8% |
| FCF Margin | 8.9% | 8.5% | 3.4% | 1.9% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4'25Latest | $1.07 | $1.08 | +0.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.14 | $1.22 | +7.0% |
Total return is +140.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +120.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +101.7% | +94.4% | — |
| 1Y | +140.8% | +120.0% | +120.4% |
| 3YCAGR | +32.1% | +12.8% | +115.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +18.2% | +6.7% | +115.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.0% | -4.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD (AHL) valuation, health, and returns.
ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +23.0% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $46.13)
ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $46.13 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $84.35 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $36.83 (implying -1.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 67/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 13.7%.
ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD pays a 5.7% dividend yield, covered by a 40% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +10.5% 1Y revenue growth and -46.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +7.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 4 analysts. The consensus price target represents a -1.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for ASPEN INSURANCE HOLDINGS LTD include: -13.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.06x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.