MODEL VERDICT
Amber International Holding Ltd (AMBR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $1.12 | -48.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $2.16 | +0.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $29.19 | +1251.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $38.41 | +1678.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.71 | +303.2% | 100% | 49 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMBR's fair value at $8.71 vs the current price of $2.16, implying +303.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 49/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.68 (P10) to $15.08 (P90), with a median of $10.17.
AMBR's current P/E of -0.7x compares to the industry median of 8.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -107.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover AMBR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $3.50 (range: $3.50 — $3.50), implying +62.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 49/100, based on: data completeness (11), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AMBR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.