Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$200.21
→
Intrinsic$158.27
-21%
$106.07$158.27$261.99
Market implies 31% growth for 5 years
AMD trades at a premium to our conservative estimate — investors expect above-average performance.
At $200, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (31%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $106 → Bull $262. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $201 | $217 | $234 | $252 |
| 10% | $136 | $147 | $158 | $170 |
| 12% | $102 | $110 | $118 | $127 |
| 14% | $81 | $87 | $94 | $101 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($262) offers 31% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($106) implies 47% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 31% growth expectations vs 25% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 21% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$8.42B
Year 2$10.52B
Year 3$13.15B
Year 4$16.44B
Year 5$20.55B
Terminal$325.70B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$6.74BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.