MODEL VERDICT
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $388.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $374.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $369.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $364.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $326.10 | Below threshold | +15.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 17 analyst estimates | $274.63 | -29.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $275.33 | -29.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $323.99 | -16.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 13 industry peers | $263.36 | -32.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $468.87 | +20.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 14 industry peers | $249.94 | -35.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $52.52 | -86.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 17 industry peers | $193.69 | -50.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 17 industry peers | $260.55 | -32.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 15 industry peers | $333.50 | -14.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 14 industry peers | $280.80 | -27.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $309.91 | -20.2% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $334 | $363 | $392 | $421 | $450 |
| Conservative (5%) | $344 | $374 | $403 | $433 | $463 |
| Base Case (2.9%) | $337 | $366 | $395 | $425 | $454 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $340 | $370 | $400 | $429 | $459 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.07 | 21.88 | 18.68 | 34.48 | 5.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.39 | 19.44 | 16.37 | 24.36 | 2.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.94 | 13.97 | 10.99 | 17.43 | 1.98 |
| P/FCF | 17.00 | 16.17 | 13.57 | 21.90 | 3.33 |
| P/FFO | 13.96 | 14.25 | 12.49 | 14.61 | 0.75 |
| P/AFFO | 15.44 | 15.73 | 13.23 | 16.42 | 1.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 22.43 | 20.49 | 14.42 | 38.81 | 8.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.22 | 5.34 | 4.22 | 6.28 | 0.64 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AMGN's fair value at $309.91 vs the current price of $388.16, implying -20.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $309.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $261.57 (P10) to $336.02 (P90), with a median of $297.77.
AMGN's current P/E of 27.3x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (14 peers in the group). This represents a +19.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
37 analysts cover AMGN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $347.00 (range: $185.00 — $432.00), implying -10.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (12), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AMGN trades at the 5710th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (23.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AMGN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 400.0% to approximately $373. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.