Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$388.16
→
Intrinsic$208.84
-46%
$112.84$208.84$399.94
Market implies 20% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $388, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (20%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $113 → Bull $400. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $274 | $307 | $342 | $380 |
| 10% | $163 | $185 | $209 | $234 |
| 12% | $105 | $121 | $138 | $157 |
| 14% | $69 | $81 | $95 | $110 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($400) offers 3% upside at 10% growth, 8% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($113) implies 71% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 20% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 46% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$8.75B
Year 2$9.45B
Year 3$10.20B
Year 4$11.02B
Year 5$11.90B
Terminal$188.59B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$8.10BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.