Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$210.00
→
Intrinsic$29.45
-86%
$16.11$29.45$61.63
AMZN's FCF is temporarily suppressed due to reinvestment (actual margin: 1.1%). Valuation uses normalized cash flow (8% target margin) to reflect long-term earnings power.
Current price reflects expectations beyond normalized FCF — likely anticipating margin expansion, capital returns, or segment dominance.
Range: Bear $16 → Bull $62. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | $46 | $50 | $54 | $59 |
| 8% | $24 | $27 | $29 | $32 |
| 10% | $15 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| 12% | $10 | $11 | $13 | $14 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($62) with 30% growth, 7% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($16) implies 92% downside at 20% growth, 10% discount
- Trading 86% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($62) — requires exceptional execution
Loading charts...
5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$9.62B
Year 2$12.02B
Year 3$15.03B
Year 4$18.79B
Year 5$23.48B
Terminal$478.97B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate8.1%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$7.70BNormalized (8% margin)
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
⚡ Reinvestor Mode: FCF margin is 1.1% (below 5% threshold). Using Revenue × 8% to reflect long-term earnings power.
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses normalized FCF (Revenue × 8%) due to reinvestment-suppressed margins. See FAQ below for full methodology.