MODEL VERDICT
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $84.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $87.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $94.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $91.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $98.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $128.78 | +52.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $186.46 | +120.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $163.97 | +94.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $98.61 | +16.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $189.51 | +124.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $115.81 | +37.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $121.65 | +43.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $77.00 | -8.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $162.06 | +91.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $95.57 | +13.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $200.04 | +136.6% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $44 | $65 | $87 | $109 | $131 |
| Conservative (7%) | $45 | $67 | $89 | $111 | $134 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $46 | $69 | $92 | $115 | $138 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $47 | $71 | $95 | $119 | $142 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 89.25 | 14.08 | 8.29 | 458.20 | 180.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.65 | 9.82 | 7.53 | 26.15 | 7.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.63 | 7.66 | 5.29 | 9.14 | 1.32 |
| P/FCF | 11.40 | 11.84 | 4.20 | 16.13 | 4.28 |
| P/FFO | 10.58 | 9.22 | 5.34 | 24.37 | 6.46 |
| P/TBV | 3.04 | 2.61 | 1.06 | 5.86 | 1.84 |
| P/AFFO | 32.54 | 14.74 | 7.04 | 111.51 | 44.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.04 | 2.61 | 1.06 | 5.86 | 1.84 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.78 | 0.59 | 0.31 | 1.60 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ANF's fair value at $200.04 vs the current price of $84.54, implying +136.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $200.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $119.16 (P10) to $362.39 (P90), with a median of $189.82.
ANF's current P/E of 8.1x compares to the industry median of 15.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -48.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 89.3x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
55 analysts cover ANF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $120.80 (range: $95.00 — $149.00), implying +42.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (29), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ANF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 80170.0% to approximately $762. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.