MODEL VERDICT
APA Corporation (APA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $29.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $25.20 | Pending | +9.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $30.50 | +0.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $62.02 | +104.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $56.95 | +87.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $45.43 | +49.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $71.78 | +136.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $43.51 | +43.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $49.47 | +62.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $52.68 | +73.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $56.95 | +87.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $46.87 | +54.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $47.30 | +55.7% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $25 | $33 | $41 | $50 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $25 | $34 | $42 | $51 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $26 | $35 | $44 | $53 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $27 | $36 | $45 | $54 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.95 | 6.13 | 3.88 | 10.38 | 3.14 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.57 | 5.08 | 3.45 | 7.56 | 1.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.09 | 3.33 | 2.38 | 7.19 | 1.80 |
| P/FCF | 14.55 | 8.35 | 4.23 | 47.05 | 16.38 |
| P/FFO | 2.88 | 2.65 | 2.21 | 4.04 | 0.70 |
| P/TBV | 3.76 | 2.20 | 0.73 | 11.56 | 4.45 |
| P/AFFO | 15.36 | 7.28 | 5.44 | 51.26 | 20.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.75 | 2.16 | 0.73 | 11.56 | 4.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.22 | 1.26 | 0.84 | 1.49 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates APA's fair value at $47.30 vs the current price of $30.37, implying +55.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.12 (P10) to $57.32 (P90), with a median of $47.56.
APA's current P/E of 7.6x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -46.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
51 analysts cover APA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.75 (range: $21.00 — $40.00), implying -8.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (25), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: APA trades at the 1630th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (7.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that APA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7330.0% to approximately $8. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.