MODEL VERDICT
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. (INR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $16.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $16.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $36.71 | +121.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $9.06 | -45.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $53.09 | +219.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $55.87 | +236.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $36.63 | +120.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $45.04 | +171.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $53.09 | +219.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $43.18 | +160.1% | 100% | 29 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $15 | $15 | $15 | $23 | $31 |
| Conservative (7%) | $16 | $16 | $16 | $24 | $32 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $16 | $16 | $16 | $25 | $33 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $17 | $17 | $17 | $25 | $34 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates INR's fair value at $43.18 vs the current price of $16.60, implying +160.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 29/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $43.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.75 (P10) to $57.18 (P90), with a median of $44.62.
INR's current P/E of 4.5x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -68.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover INR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.00 (range: $18.00 — $23.00), implying +20.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 29/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for INR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.