MODEL VERDICT
Amphenol Corporation (APH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $142.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $149.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $151.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $146.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $140.75 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $120.29 | -15.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $117.65 | -17.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $112.57 | -20.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $87.77 | -38.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $104.70 | -26.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $97.57 | -31.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $183.86 | +29.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $61.55 | -56.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $63.56 | -55.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $112.57 | -20.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $84.03 | -40.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $118.61 | -16.7% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 40× | 43× (Current) | 46× | 49× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (11%) | $137 | $148 | $160 | $171 | $182 |
| Conservative (18%) | $146 | $158 | $170 | $181 | $193 |
| Base Case (27.8%) | $158 | $171 | $184 | $196 | $209 |
| Bull Case (38%) | $170 | $184 | $197 | $211 | $225 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.84 | 33.36 | 24.88 | 40.46 | 5.05 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.54 | 25.95 | 19.56 | 29.66 | 3.56 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.57 | 21.76 | 16.93 | 25.67 | 3.00 |
| P/FCF | 34.25 | 30.57 | 26.40 | 46.37 | 7.84 |
| P/FFO | 26.62 | 26.60 | 20.60 | 33.25 | 4.15 |
| P/TBV | 599.44 | 235.72 | 123.23 | 1803.09 | 804.26 |
| P/AFFO | 32.79 | 32.57 | 24.74 | 41.14 | 5.48 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.41 | 7.38 | 6.67 | 12.78 | 2.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.09 | 4.90 | 3.75 | 7.48 | 1.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates APH's fair value at $118.61 vs the current price of $142.30, implying -16.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $118.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $95.93 (P10) to $126.28 (P90), with a median of $110.67.
APH's current P/E of 42.6x compares to the industry median of 33.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +26.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.8x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
29 analysts cover APH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $180.33 (range: $165.00 — $215.00), implying +26.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 17.3% is 1.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (15.4%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$98. (2) Multiple compression: APH trades at the 4060th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (32.8×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that APH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3140.0% to approximately $98. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.