MODEL VERDICT
AppFolio, Inc. (APPF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $173.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $169.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $156.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $154.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $143.34 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $142.88 | -17.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $113.07 | -34.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $108.79 | -37.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $141.04 | -18.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $93.68 | -45.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $139.19 | -19.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $130.31 | -24.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $122.66 | -29.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $121.97 | -29.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $144.51 | -16.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $967.27 | +458.8% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 37× | 41× | 45× (Current) | 49× | 53× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $146 | $162 | $178 | $194 | $210 |
| Conservative (5%) | $151 | $167 | $183 | $200 | $216 |
| Base Case (-2.7%) | $140 | $155 | $170 | $185 | $200 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $138 | $153 | $168 | $183 | $198 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1131.83 | 83.88 | 40.55 | 4203.47 | 1758.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 1461.04 | 60.36 | 31.87 | 6546.33 | 2853.34 |
| EV/EBITDA | 132.04 | 138.93 | 47.93 | 213.01 | 68.94 |
| P/FCF | 632.74 | 195.98 | 35.37 | 1997.44 | 818.65 |
| P/FFO | 85.52 | 56.97 | 34.04 | 201.34 | 65.11 |
| P/TBV | 47.62 | 25.32 | 21.34 | 176.75 | 57.18 |
| P/AFFO | 107.86 | 62.07 | 37.85 | 283.00 | 96.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.26 | 17.48 | 13.89 | 29.64 | 5.62 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.33 | 11.43 | 7.82 | 20.74 | 4.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates APPF's fair value at $967.27 vs the current price of $173.10, implying +458.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $967.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $459.14 (P10) to $2026.70 (P90), with a median of $1155.63.
APPF's current P/E of 44.6x compares to the industry median of 28.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +59.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1131.8x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover APPF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $236.67 (range: $210.00 — $255.00), implying +36.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that APPF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 208610.0% to approximately $3784. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.