MODEL VERDICT
AppFolio, Inc. (APPF) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $177.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $172.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $178.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $188.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $226.58 | Pending | -18.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $133.22 | -25.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $102.46 | -42.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $100.75 | -43.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $128.61 | -27.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $107.17 | -39.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $124.26 | -30.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $91.96 | -48.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $86.55 | -51.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $106.58 | -40.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $129.52 | -27.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $913.67 | +414.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 38× | 42× | 46× (Current) | 50× | 54× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $150 | $166 | $182 | $198 | $214 |
| Conservative (5%) | $155 | $171 | $187 | $204 | $220 |
| Base Case (-2.7%) | $143 | $159 | $174 | $189 | $204 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $142 | $157 | $172 | $187 | $202 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1131.83 | 83.88 | 40.55 | 4203.47 | 1758.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 1460.99 | 60.36 | 31.87 | 6546.33 | 2853.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 132.00 | 138.93 | 47.72 | 213.01 | 69.00 |
| P/FCF | 632.74 | 195.98 | 35.37 | 1997.44 | 818.65 |
| P/FFO | 85.52 | 56.97 | 34.04 | 201.34 | 65.11 |
| P/TBV | 47.62 | 25.32 | 21.34 | 176.75 | 57.18 |
| P/AFFO | 107.86 | 62.07 | 37.85 | 283.00 | 96.99 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.26 | 17.48 | 13.89 | 29.64 | 5.62 |
| P/S Ratio | 12.33 | 11.43 | 7.82 | 20.74 | 4.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates APPF's fair value at $913.67 vs the current price of $177.76, implying +414.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $913.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $443.73 (P10) to $2007.60 (P90), with a median of $1139.68.
APPF's current P/E of 45.8x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +76.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1131.8x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
12 analysts cover APPF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $275.00 (range: $245.00 — $325.00), implying +54.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that APPF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 209290.0% to approximately $3898. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.