AppFolio Inc. (APPF)
Valuation Overview•Is AppFolio Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 81/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: High-quality compounder, with growth as the only relative weakness.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
APPF exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 22.4% ROIC). This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($36M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (26.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 17.5% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $281.1M | +19.7% | +26.3% | +25.1% | +28.9% | |
| EBITDA | $58.0M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $41.5M | -30.9% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.17 | -30.1% | — | -2.7% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $87.6M | +28.4% | +133.3% | +136.7% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 63.0% | 61.6% | 60.8% | 60.7% |
| Operating Margin | 17.5% | 11.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| Net Margin | 15.1% | 13.7% | 5.4% | 10.1% |
| FCF Margin | 25.9% | 18.7% | 12.2% | 8.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $1.69 | $1.71 | +1.2% | ||
| Q2'26 | $1.44 | $1.61 | +11.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.22 | $1.39 | +13.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.45 | $1.31 | -9.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.27 | $1.38 | +8.7% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.22 | $1.21 | -0.8% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.92 | $0.92 | +0.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.02 | $1.30 | +27.5% |
Total return is -27.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -43.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -10.5% | -23.7% | — |
| 1Y | -27.7% | -43.6% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +4.9% | -16.0% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +11.6% | -0.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +26.5% | +13.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about AppFolio Inc. (APPF) valuation, health, and returns.
AppFolio Inc. is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -51.2% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $104.79)
AppFolio Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $104.79 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $116.43 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $236.75 (implying +14.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
AppFolio Inc. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 81/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 27.9 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 22.4%.
AppFolio Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 2.6% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -1.2% in the last 12 months.
AppFolio Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +19.7% 1Y revenue growth and -30.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +26.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 13 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a 3-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +14.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for AppFolio Inc. include: -49.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.49x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.