MODEL VERDICT
Appian Corporation (APPN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $26.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $25.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $22.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $26.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $33.80 | Below threshold | -24.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $14.01 | -47.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $1.57 | -94.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $0.46 | -98.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $11.69 | -56.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $10.76 | -59.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $28.08 | +5.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $26.80 | +0.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $0.47 | -98.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $12.18 | -54.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.38 | -61.1% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 1120× | 1227× | 1334× (Current) | 1441× | 1548× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $23 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
| Conservative (7%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $25 | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $25 | $28 | $30 | $33 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 44.74 | 23.28 | 12.19 | 128.97 | 48.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 27.70 | 19.80 | 12.19 | 52.60 | 17.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.93 | 5.05 | 3.64 | 36.75 | 11.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates APPN's fair value at $10.38 vs the current price of $26.67, implying -61.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.58 (P10) to $21.47 (P90), with a median of $16.25.
APPN's current P/E of 1333.5x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +5705.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover APPN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $30.25 (range: $21.00 — $41.00), implying +13.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for APPN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.