MODEL VERDICT
Appian Corporation (APPN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $22.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $22.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $21.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $21.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $20.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $18.04 | -20.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $2.41 | -89.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $0.63 | -97.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $15.04 | -33.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $12.77 | -43.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $56.62 | +151.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $59.27 | +163.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $0.64 | -97.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $14.94 | -33.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.43 | -36.0% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 947× | 1037× | 1127× (Current) | 1217× | 1307× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $22 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| Conservative (7%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $21 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 44.74 | 23.28 | 12.19 | 128.97 | 48.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 27.70 | 19.80 | 12.19 | 52.60 | 17.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.93 | 5.05 | 3.64 | 36.75 | 11.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates APPN's fair value at $14.43 vs the current price of $22.54, implying -36.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.35 (P10) to $27.90 (P90), with a median of $22.38.
APPN's current P/E of 1127.0x compares to the industry median of 31.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +3468.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover APPN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $31.25 (range: $25.00 — $41.00), implying +38.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (12), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for APPN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.