MODEL VERDICT
Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $43.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $45.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $43.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $43.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $57.94 | Below threshold | -27.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $54.96 | +25.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $39.09 | -10.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $56.09 | +28.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $53.46 | +22.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $36.38 | -16.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $51.63 | +18.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $33.03 | -24.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $31.00 | -29.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $62.21 | +42.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $53.84 | +23.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $73.74 | +68.6% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $38 | $42 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| Conservative (7%) | $39 | $43 | $48 | $52 | $57 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $40 | $45 | $49 | $54 | $59 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $41 | $46 | $51 | $56 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 57.95 | 61.08 | 28.04 | 84.73 | 28.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.69 | 41.37 | 38.93 | 53.77 | 7.96 |
| P/FCF | 96.18 | 23.27 | 20.64 | 317.52 | 147.57 |
| P/FFO | 41.92 | 40.49 | 23.20 | 62.06 | 19.47 |
| P/TBV | 26.77 | 16.69 | 14.30 | 72.77 | 20.94 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.39 | 14.27 | 11.68 | 21.87 | 4.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.98 | 6.32 | 2.13 | 10.52 | 2.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates PEGA's fair value at $73.74 vs the current price of $43.73, implying +68.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.36 (P10) to $111.24 (P90), with a median of $72.83.
PEGA's current P/E of 20.5x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -22.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 57.9x over 3 years. Signal: Discount.
23 analysts cover PEGA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $58.25 (range: $48.00 — $65.00), implying +33.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PEGA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.