MODEL VERDICT
Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $36.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $37.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $43.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $42.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $39.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $62.39 | +72.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $23.59 | -34.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $63.45 | +75.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $55.79 | +54.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $38.14 | +5.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $66.96 | +85.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $62.30 | +72.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $59.49 | +64.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $64.72 | +78.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $55.77 | +54.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.72 | +98.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $29 | $33 | $38 | $42 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $29 | $34 | $39 | $43 | $48 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $30 | $35 | $40 | $45 | $49 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $31 | $36 | $41 | $46 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 57.95 | 61.08 | 28.04 | 84.73 | 28.47 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.65 | 43.98 | 38.66 | 57.31 | 9.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 43.47 | 38.93 | 37.71 | 53.77 | 8.94 |
| P/FCF | 96.34 | 23.59 | 20.64 | 317.52 | 147.46 |
| P/FFO | 42.95 | 40.49 | 26.32 | 62.06 | 18.00 |
| P/TBV | 26.78 | 16.69 | 14.30 | 72.77 | 20.94 |
| P/AFFO | 47.17 | 48.42 | 27.26 | 65.83 | 19.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.39 | 14.27 | 11.68 | 21.87 | 4.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.98 | 6.32 | 2.13 | 10.52 | 2.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PEGA's fair value at $71.72 vs the current price of $36.20, implying +98.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.14 (P10) to $110.69 (P90), with a median of $73.87.
PEGA's current P/E of 17.0x compares to the industry median of 29.8x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -42.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 57.9x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover PEGA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $56.60 (range: $48.00 — $60.00), implying +56.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PEGA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.