MODEL VERDICT
Digital Turbine, Inc. (APPS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $4.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.86 | Pending | -9.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $8.03 | +97.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $10.38 | +155.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $14.20 | +249.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $17.22 | +324.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.62 | +334.1% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 153.54 | 108.90 | 42.88 | 353.50 | 146.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 130.43 | 67.70 | 21.41 | 383.35 | 151.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 84.49 | 36.41 | 8.20 | 325.63 | 121.44 |
| P/FCF | 121.00 | 137.81 | 17.47 | 190.92 | 75.40 |
| P/FFO | 100.79 | 42.07 | 7.15 | 311.87 | 143.17 |
| P/AFFO | 137.82 | 48.67 | 9.51 | 444.45 | 206.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 18.87 | 3.37 | 0.80 | 65.40 | 25.49 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.82 | 2.09 | 0.31 | 36.52 | 12.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates APPS's fair value at $17.62 vs the current price of $4.06, implying +334.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.95 (P10) to $39.41 (P90), with a median of $19.06.
APPS's current P/E of -4.6x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -117.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 153.5x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover APPS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $10.00 — $10.00), implying +146.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for APPS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.