MODEL VERDICT
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $125.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $122.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $118.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $108.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $108.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $179.81 | +42.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $146.56 | +16.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $106.04 | -15.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $204.89 | +62.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $99.54 | -20.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $212.75 | +69.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $255.48 | +103.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $238.98 | +89.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $104.49 | -17.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $203.86 | +62.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $145.39 | +15.6% | 100% | 70 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 40× | 44× | 48× (Current) | 52× | 56× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $107 | $118 | $128 | $139 | $150 |
| Conservative (5%) | $110 | $121 | $132 | $143 | $154 |
| Base Case (-0.5%) | $104 | $115 | $125 | $136 | $146 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $104 | $114 | $125 | $135 | $146 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.92 | 15.16 | 5.99 | 28.32 | 6.70 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.54 | 12.30 | 5.22 | 23.76 | 5.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.91 | 6.38 | 3.87 | 9.85 | 2.19 |
| P/FCF | 19.07 | 13.09 | 5.85 | 48.49 | 15.73 |
| P/FFO | 6.75 | 6.88 | 4.08 | 9.50 | 1.97 |
| P/TBV | 2.78 | 2.41 | 1.19 | 6.39 | 1.76 |
| P/AFFO | 14.75 | 14.59 | 6.55 | 24.25 | 6.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.82 | 1.55 | 0.96 | 3.45 | 0.85 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.49 | 0.42 | 0.24 | 0.85 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARCB's fair value at $145.39 vs the current price of $125.82, implying +15.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $145.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $120.26 (P10) to $157.19 (P90), with a median of $138.39.
ARCB's current P/E of 48.0x compares to the industry median of 40.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +18.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
24 analysts cover ARCB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $117.14 (range: $85.00 — $150.00), implying -6.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (11), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ARCB trades at the 3750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ARCB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1380.0% to approximately $143. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.