ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)
Valuation Overview•Is ArcBest Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount compared to peers, but the underlying intrinsic cash flows struggle to support the current price.
Fragile underlying quality score of 30/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
ARCB struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-7.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (2.2%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $998.8M | -4.0% | -7.3% | +6.4% | +4.2% | |
| EBITDA | $3.0M | — | -21.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$1.0M | -65.5% | -41.4% | — | +3.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.05 | -64.1% | -39.3% | -0.5% | +4.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.2M | +149.0% | -28.0% | -5.1% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 4.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Operating Margin | 2.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% |
| Net Margin | 1.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| FCF Margin | 4.2% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.27 | $0.32 | +18.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.45 | $0.36 | -20.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.37 | $1.46 | +6.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.48 | $1.36 | -8.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.52 | $0.51 | -1.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.05 | $1.33 | +26.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.84 | $1.64 | -10.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $2.06 | $1.98 | -3.9% |
Total return is +112.6% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +87.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +87.6% | +78.3% | — |
| 1Y | +112.6% | +87.6% | +0.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +19.2% | 0.0% | +1.7% |
| 5YCAGR | +22.1% | +9.2% | +4.2% |
| 10YCAGR | +24.2% | +11.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) valuation, health, and returns.
ArcBest Corporation is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -54.9% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $65.12)
ArcBest Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $65.12 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $178.78 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $126.43 (implying -12.5% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
ArcBest Corporation displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 30/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.0 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 3.9%.
ArcBest Corporation pays a 0.3% dividend yield, covered by a 18% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.3% buyback yield.
ArcBest Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -4.0% 1Y revenue growth and -64.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -7.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 24 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 42% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -12.5% change from current levels.
Investment risks for ArcBest Corporation include: -30.8% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.46x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.46x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.