ArcBest Corp (ARCB)
Valuation Overview•Is ArcBest Corp Overvalued or Undervalued?
Priced at a premium to peer multiples and intrinsic cash flows, demanding strong execution to justify current levels.
Fragile underlying quality score of 40/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
ARCB struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-7.3% 3Y CAGR) however, earnings have severely contracted over the same period. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (0.7%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.2B | -4.0% | -7.3% | +6.4% | +4.2% | |
| EBITDA | -$64.9M | — | -21.3% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$13.8M | -65.5% | -41.4% | — | +3.0% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.62 | -64.1% | -39.3% | -0.5% | +4.6% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $120.7M | +119.8% | -30.9% | -7.5% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 53.8% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% |
| Operating Margin | 0.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.0% |
| Net Margin | 0.4% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% |
| FCF Margin | 4.6% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $2.26 | $2.38 | +5.3% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.27 | $0.32 | +18.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.45 | $0.36 | -20.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.37 | $1.46 | +6.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.48 | $1.36 | -8.1% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.52 | $0.51 | -1.9% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.05 | $1.33 | +26.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.84 | $1.64 | -10.9% |
Total return is +88.6% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +72.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +70.3% | +57.9% | — |
| 1Y | +88.6% | +72.9% | +0.7% |
| 3YCAGR | +9.1% | -11.2% | +1.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +11.9% | +0.7% | +3.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +21.6% | +8.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about ArcBest Corp (ARCB) valuation, health, and returns.
ArcBest Corp is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -56.7% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $55.80)
ArcBest Corp has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $55.80 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $119.17 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $162.83 (implying +24.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
ArcBest Corp displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 40/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.9 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.2%.
ArcBest Corp pays a 0.4% dividend yield, covered by a 18% payout ratio with 0 years of growth, supplemented by a 2.6% buyback yield.
ArcBest Corp's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved -4.0% 1Y revenue growth and -64.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -7.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 24 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +24.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for ArcBest Corp include: -25.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.25x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.