MODEL VERDICT
Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (ARCT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $38.42 | +410.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $28.84 | +283.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48.25 | +540.8% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.08 | 3.01 | 1.70 | 5.09 | 1.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.08 | 3.01 | 1.70 | 5.09 | 1.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 27.32 | 5.32 | 2.23 | 92.34 | 40.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARCT's fair value at $48.25 vs the current price of $7.53, implying +540.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.77 (P10) to $82.74 (P90), with a median of $47.18.
ARCT's current P/E of -2.5x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -110.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover ARCT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $20.00 — $54.00), implying +391.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (7), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ARCT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.