MODEL VERDICT
Incyte Corporation (INCY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $101.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $101.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $101.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $100.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $106.87 | Below threshold | +2.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $193.24 | +90.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $170.63 | +68.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $139.77 | +38.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $180.08 | +77.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $180.68 | +78.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $179.35 | +77.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $261.70 | +158.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $261.20 | +157.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $170.16 | +68.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $195.80 | +93.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $226.57 | +123.7% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $80 | $93 | $107 | $120 | $133 |
| Conservative (7%) | $82 | $96 | $109 | $123 | $137 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $85 | $99 | $113 | $127 | $141 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $87 | $102 | $116 | $131 | $146 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 102.03 | 33.14 | 15.41 | 460.47 | 176.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.38 | 26.66 | 10.08 | 40.44 | 11.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.36 | 21.57 | 11.70 | 76.14 | 23.96 |
| P/FCF | 30.58 | 29.36 | 14.63 | 58.38 | 15.10 |
| P/FFO | 42.11 | 29.38 | 14.37 | 119.33 | 39.69 |
| P/TBV | 5.34 | 4.58 | 2.89 | 8.45 | 2.16 |
| P/AFFO | 94.15 | 33.66 | 15.01 | 408.46 | 154.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.83 | 4.22 | 2.73 | 7.31 | 1.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.40 | 5.30 | 3.43 | 8.80 | 1.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates INCY's fair value at $226.57 vs the current price of $101.27, implying +123.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $226.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $160.99 (P10) to $336.34 (P90), with a median of $229.44.
INCY's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 21.8x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -27.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 102.0x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
44 analysts cover INCY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $108.90 (range: $84.00 — $135.00), implying +7.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (18), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INCY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 24400.0% to approximately $348. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.