MODEL VERDICT
Incyte Corporation (INCY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $96.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $97.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $97.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $96.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $98.78 | +1.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $127.16 | +31.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $149.63 | +54.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $113.91 | +17.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $131.61 | +35.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $133.17 | +37.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $147.02 | +51.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $135.44 | +39.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $149.63 | +54.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $138.44 | +42.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $177.94 | +83.6% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $73 | $87 | $100 | $113 | $127 |
| Conservative (7%) | $75 | $89 | $102 | $116 | $130 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $78 | $92 | $106 | $120 | $134 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $80 | $95 | $109 | $124 | $138 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 102.03 | 33.14 | 15.41 | 460.47 | 176.22 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.38 | 26.66 | 10.08 | 40.44 | 11.98 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.36 | 21.57 | 11.70 | 76.14 | 23.96 |
| P/FCF | 30.58 | 29.36 | 14.63 | 58.38 | 15.10 |
| P/FFO | 42.11 | 29.38 | 14.37 | 119.33 | 39.69 |
| P/TBV | 5.34 | 4.58 | 2.89 | 8.45 | 2.16 |
| P/AFFO | 94.15 | 33.66 | 15.01 | 408.46 | 154.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.83 | 4.22 | 2.73 | 7.31 | 1.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.40 | 5.30 | 3.43 | 8.80 | 1.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates INCY's fair value at $177.94 vs the current price of $96.91, implying +83.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $177.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $122.98 (P10) to $287.62 (P90), with a median of $183.21.
INCY's current P/E of 15.1x compares to the industry median of 23.3x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -35.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 102.0x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
44 analysts cover INCY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $109.50 (range: $90.00 — $135.00), implying +13.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (19), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that INCY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23680.0% to approximately $326. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.