MODEL VERDICT
Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $19.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $19.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $20.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $20.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $20.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $25.45 | +32.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $23.70 | +23.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $2.76 | -85.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $11.75 | -38.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $26.07 | +35.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $28.55 | +48.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $2.76 | -85.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.64 | -8.3% | 100% | 46 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 115× | 126× | 137× (Current) | 148× | 159× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Conservative (7%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $24 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $18 | $19 | $21 | $23 | $24 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates ARMN's fair value at $17.64 vs the current price of $19.23, implying -8.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.18 (P10) to $22.21 (P90), with a median of $18.17.
ARMN's current P/E of 137.4x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +596.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
1 analysts cover ARMN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ARMN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19380.0% to approximately $57. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.