Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN)
Valuation Overview•Is Aris Mining Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 77/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently dilutes shareholders to fund operations and growth rather than returning capital.
ARMN demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (32.4% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 38.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $308.6M | +81.7% | +32.4% | +18.9% | +21.3% | |
| EBITDA | $141.0M | — | +63.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $50.9M | +218.7% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.25 | +192.9% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $53.7M | +268.3% | — | +11.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 48.7% | 43.2% | 44.9% | 41.7% |
| Operating Margin | 38.9% | 28.6% | 30.5% | 26.6% |
| Net Margin | 8.4% | 5.3% | 12.7% | 3.8% |
| FCF Margin | 10.8% | -1.0% | -2.2% | 6.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1'26Latest | $0.58 | $0.14 | -75.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.27 | $0.36 | +33.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.32 | $0.27 | -15.6% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.18 | $0.16 | -11.1% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.18 | $0.14 | -22.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.14 | $0.08 | -42.9% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.15 | $0.08 | -46.7% | ||
| Q2'24 | $0.11 | $0.04 | -63.6% |
Total return is +190.5% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +169.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +21.6% | +14.3% | — |
| 1Y | +190.5% | +169.6% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +108.9% | +89.5% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +55.9% | +44.4% | +9.0% |
| 10YCAGR | +24.9% | +11.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Aris Mining Corporation (ARMN) valuation, health, and returns.
Aris Mining Corporation is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $22.16)
Aris Mining Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $22.16 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $21.29. A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Aris Mining Corporation displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 77/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.7 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 18.3%.
Aris Mining Corporation does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
Aris Mining Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +81.7% 1Y revenue growth and +192.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +32.4%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 1 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 8% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a N/A change from current levels.
Investment risks for Aris Mining Corporation include: -26.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.12x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.