Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN)
Valuation Overview•Is Arvinas, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Moderate quality score of 51/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
ARVN struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($134M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (26.0% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-279.3%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $15.6M | -0.3% | +26.0% | +58.9% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$61.6M | — | +24.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$57.6M | +59.4% | +34.1% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.90 | +53.8% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$70.5M | -5.6% | +0.6% | -23.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 97.4% | 99.3% | 99.6% | 99.8% |
| Operating Margin | -279.3% | -216.7% | -240.4% | -266.8% |
| Net Margin | -247.5% | -191.4% | -229.1% | -259.2% |
| FCF Margin | -287.4% | -217.0% | 34.1% | -68.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.95 | $-0.90 | +5.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.55 | $-1.10 | -100.0% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.75 | $-0.48 | +36.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.87 | $-0.84 | +3.4% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.86 | $1.14 | +232.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-1.07 | $-0.63 | +41.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.88 | $-0.68 | +22.7% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.72 | $-0.49 | +31.9% |
Total return is +2.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -22.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -33.1% | -42.4% | — |
| 1Y | +2.7% | -22.3% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -36.0% | -55.6% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -37.3% | -49.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -7.1% | -20.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) valuation, health, and returns.
Arvinas, Inc. valuation is being assessed using available models.
Arvinas, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Wall Street Analyst Target: $14.75 (implying +92.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Arvinas, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 51/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -1.8 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -22.4%.
Arvinas, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 18.6% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by -9.7% in the last 12 months.
Arvinas, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -0.3% 1Y revenue growth and +53.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +26.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 26 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +92.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Arvinas, Inc. include: -49.5% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.07x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.