MODEL VERDICT
Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $34.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $33.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $31.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $29.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $27.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $83.17 | +138.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $98.39 | +182.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $47.82 | +37.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $41.30 | +18.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $46.18 | +32.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $25.28 | -27.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $95.21 | +172.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $109.54 | +214.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $27.40 | -21.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $41.73 | +19.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.52 | +62.0% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 64× | 70× | 76× (Current) | 82× | 88× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $30 | $33 | $36 | $38 | $41 |
| Conservative (5%) | $31 | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 |
| Base Case (-14.6%) | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
| Bull Case (-20%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.45 | 35.03 | 18.09 | 53.93 | 12.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.91 | 23.86 | 13.65 | 65.94 | 18.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.09 | 16.24 | 10.60 | 30.74 | 7.57 |
| P/FCF | 35.41 | 34.43 | 11.72 | 65.27 | 20.14 |
| P/FFO | 23.85 | 21.45 | 17.95 | 38.60 | 7.41 |
| P/TBV | 18.93 | 18.39 | 5.74 | 34.29 | 13.12 |
| P/AFFO | 31.04 | 29.02 | 21.07 | 49.63 | 11.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.13 | 2.42 | 1.54 | 6.53 | 1.77 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.57 | 1.20 | 0.39 | 4.31 | 1.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ASTH's fair value at $56.52 vs the current price of $34.89, implying +62.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $50.97 (P10) to $69.93 (P90), with a median of $60.17.
ASTH's current P/E of 75.8x compares to the industry median of 104.0x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -27.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.5x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
9 analysts cover ASTH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.20 (range: $26.00 — $40.00), implying -2.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ASTH trades at the 9090th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (37.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ASTH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 22780.0% to approximately $114. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.