MODEL VERDICT
Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $18.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $16.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $15.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $15.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $8.03 | -56.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $10.83 | -41.4% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Tangible Book 8 bank peers | $20.10 | +8.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $39.25 | +112.3% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.30 | -33.5% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 2.94 | 3.56 | 1.49 | 3.76 | 1.26 |
| P/TBV | 2.29 | 2.52 | 0.59 | 3.84 | 1.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.29 | 2.52 | 0.59 | 3.84 | 1.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 0.73 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates OSCR's fair value at $12.30 vs the current price of $18.49, implying -33.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.16 (P10) to $15.15 (P90), with a median of $11.58.
OSCR's current P/E of -10.9x compares to the industry median of 22.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -149.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover OSCR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.75 (range: $15.00 — $18.00), implying -9.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OSCR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.