MODEL VERDICT
Ames National Corporation (ATLO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $16.90 | -39.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $24.89 | -10.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $27.28 | -1.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $41.47 | +49.6% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $16.90 | -39.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $40.09 | +44.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.17 | -16.4% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $23 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $33 |
| Conservative (5%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Base Case (-9.3%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (-13%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.32 | 13.89 | 9.35 | 17.78 | 2.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.14 | 9.96 | 2.95 | 22.69 | 6.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.17 | 9.22 | 2.69 | 19.98 | 5.53 |
| P/FCF | 10.89 | 11.61 | 7.72 | 13.41 | 2.36 |
| P/FFO | 11.86 | 12.40 | 8.60 | 15.27 | 2.30 |
| P/TBV | 1.29 | 1.26 | 0.92 | 1.58 | 0.24 |
| P/AFFO | 13.86 | 12.72 | 9.27 | 25.00 | 5.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 1.16 | 0.85 | 1.43 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.02 | 2.99 | 1.60 | 4.11 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATLO's fair value at $23.17 vs the current price of $27.72, implying -16.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.17 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.74 (P10) to $25.50 (P90), with a median of $23.55.
ATLO's current P/E of 24.3x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +64.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for ATLO.
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ATLO trades at the 8720th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ATLO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.