Aura Minerals (AUGO)
Valuation Overview•Is Aura Minerals Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Moderate quality score of 71/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
AUGO exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins (highlighted by a massive 93.4% ROIC). This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (32.9% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 49.1% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $382.6M | +55.1% | +32.9% | +25.2% | — | |
| EBITDA | $205.3M | — | +57.8% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $95.2M | -162.1% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.15 | -128.6% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $67.1M | +88.4% | — | +17.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 56.4% | 43.5% | 41.4% | 40.9% |
| Operating Margin | 49.1% | 34.9% | 32.8% | 32.6% |
| Net Margin | 7.8% | -2.0% | 4.2% | 7.3% |
| FCF Margin | 15.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.18 | $1.30 | -40.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.67 | $0.96 | -42.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.97 | $0.84 | -13.4% | ||
| Q3'25 | — | $0.49 | — |
Total return is +148.0% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +127.2%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +18.7% | +11.3% | — |
| 1Y | +148.0% | +127.2% | +9.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +36.5% | +19.7% | +15.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +20.8% | +10.7% | +18.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +10.1% | -3.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Aura Minerals (AUGO) valuation, health, and returns.
Aura Minerals is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. overvalued (implying -54.4% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $29.21)
Aura Minerals has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $29.21 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $60.46 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $52.80 (implying -17.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Aura Minerals displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 71/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 2.9 (grey zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 93.4%.
Aura Minerals pays a 2.2% dividend yield, covered by a 0% payout ratio with 3 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Aura Minerals's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +55.1% 1Y revenue growth and -128.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +32.9%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 2 analysts. The consensus price target represents a -17.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Aura Minerals include: -51.2% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (2.19x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 2.19x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.