MODEL VERDICT
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $183.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $172.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $173.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $171.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $169.78 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $161.97 | -11.7% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $244.43 | +33.2% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $151.12 | -17.6% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $166.78 | -9.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $194.91 | +6.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $213.89 | +16.6% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $246.65 | +34.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $138.68 | -24.4% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $144.27 | -21.4% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $196.47 | +7.1% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $158 | $173 | $188 | $204 | $219 |
| Conservative (5%) | $163 | $178 | $194 | $210 | $225 |
| Base Case (4.7%) | $162 | $178 | $193 | $209 | $224 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $165 | $181 | $196 | $212 | $228 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.81 | 28.54 | 19.92 | 37.25 | 5.95 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.89 | 29.93 | 22.06 | 36.57 | 4.91 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.54 | 21.20 | 19.04 | 31.46 | 4.38 |
| P/FCF | 22.46 | 20.81 | 18.13 | 33.61 | 5.45 |
| P/FFO | 15.86 | 15.19 | 11.58 | 20.22 | 3.27 |
| P/TBV | 2.43 | 2.25 | 2.01 | 3.23 | 0.43 |
| P/AFFO | 17.65 | 17.13 | 12.72 | 22.40 | 3.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.43 | 2.25 | 2.01 | 3.23 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.75 | 9.79 | 8.47 | 15.38 | 2.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVB's fair value at $196.47 vs the current price of $183.45, implying +7.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $196.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $186.89 (P10) to $212.85 (P90), with a median of $199.60.
AVB's current P/E of 24.8x compares to the industry median of 28.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -14.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.8x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
42 analysts cover AVB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $191.70 (range: $172.00 — $206.00), implying +4.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (23), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AVB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (37.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2560.0% to approximately $230. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.