Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$319.55
→
Intrinsic$204.71
-36%
$124.20$204.71$399.23
Market implies 29% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 18% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $320, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (29%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $124 → Bull $399. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 14% | 16% | 18% | 20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6% | $297 | $324 | $353 | $383 |
| 8% | $173 | $188 | $205 | $222 |
| 10% | $119 | $130 | $141 | $153 |
| 12% | $89 | $97 | $106 | $115 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($399) offers 25% upside at 22% growth, 7% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($124) implies 61% downside at 14% growth, 10% discount
- Price reflects 29% growth expectations vs 18% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 36% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$31.74B
Year 2$37.44B
Year 3$44.16B
Year 4$52.08B
Year 5$61.43B
Terminal$1.25T
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate17.9%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate8.1%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$26.91BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.