Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO)
Valuation Overview•Is Mission Produce, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
The market is pricing the stock in line with historical averages, assuming steady-state growth.
Fragile underlying quality score of 43/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
AVO struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (10.0% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. Operating efficiency remains adequate with margins around 5.2%.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $290.9M | +12.7% | +10.0% | +10.0% | — | |
| EBITDA | $6.1M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$7.2M | +2.7% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.10 | +1.9% | — | +5.3% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$29.0M | -39.2% | — | +26.2% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 12.3% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 11.7% |
| Operating Margin | 5.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 4.6% |
| Net Margin | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 3.4% |
| FCF Margin | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.05 | $-0.10 | -287.5% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.07 | $0.01 | -85.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.23 | $0.31 | +34.8% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.13 | $0.26 | +100.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.03 | $0.12 | +300.0% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.01 | $0.10 | +900.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.08 | $0.28 | +250.0% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.01 | $0.23 | +2400.0% |
Total return is -8.4% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -33.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -0.8% | -10.1% | — |
| 1Y | -8.4% | -33.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -1.4% | -22.2% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -11.4% | -25.7% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -1.8% | -15.8% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Mission Produce, Inc. appears Fair versus peers compared to industry peers.
Mission Produce, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $11.30 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $16.00 (implying +39.3% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Mission Produce, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 43/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.2 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 7.2%.
Mission Produce, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 0.8% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +0.2% in the last 12 months.
Mission Produce, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +12.7% 1Y revenue growth and +1.9% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +10.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 6 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 75% of recent quarters with a -2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +39.3% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Mission Produce, Inc. include: -34.1% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.19x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.