MODEL VERDICT
Mission Produce, Inc. (AVO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $13.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $13.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $14.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $13.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $14.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $12.55 | -9.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $17.32 | +25.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $15.23 | +10.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $11.22 | -18.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $20.83 | +50.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $12.50 | -9.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $1.58 | -88.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $13.17 | -4.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $12.39 | -10.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $14.98 | +8.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $12.10 | -12.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.95 | +8.3% | 100% | 87 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $16 | $17 |
| Base Case (5.3%) | $12 | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 | $17 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.79 | 26.28 | 21.89 | 36.71 | 6.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.04 | 16.32 | 13.51 | 86.32 | 31.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.25 | 12.91 | 9.08 | 23.27 | 5.43 |
| P/FCF | 43.50 | 22.24 | 16.72 | 91.53 | 41.69 |
| P/FFO | 17.53 | 16.03 | 11.44 | 23.80 | 5.45 |
| P/TBV | 1.93 | 1.80 | 1.42 | 2.67 | 0.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.73 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 2.24 | 0.38 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.81 | 0.59 | 1.25 | 0.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AVO's fair value at $14.95 vs the current price of $13.81, implying +8.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.37 (P10) to $18.38 (P90), with a median of $15.69.
AVO's current P/E of 26.1x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -9.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.8x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
6 analysts cover AVO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $15.00 — $27.00), implying +37.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AVO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (2.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1460.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.