MODEL VERDICT
Credicorp Ltd. (BAP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $321.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $323.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $331.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $316.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $349.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $766.77 | +138.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $638.58 | +98.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $94.09 | -70.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $890.07 | +176.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $766.77 | +138.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $136.66 | -57.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $494.47 | +53.6% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $846 | $988 | $1129 | $1270 | $1411 |
| Conservative (5%) | $871 | $1016 | $1161 | $1306 | $1451 |
| Base Case (5.2%) | $872 | $1018 | $1163 | $1308 | $1454 |
| Bull Case (7%) | $888 | $1036 | $1184 | $1332 | $1480 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.03 | 2.71 | 2.33 | 37.62 | 13.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.92 | 3.40 | 0.58 | 121.78 | 44.94 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.63 | 3.01 | 0.54 | 30.30 | 10.52 |
| P/FCF | 2.36 | 2.64 | 1.08 | 4.08 | 1.28 |
| P/FFO | 4.15 | 2.35 | 2.04 | 12.76 | 3.87 |
| P/TBV | 0.53 | 0.46 | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.16 |
| P/AFFO | 4.44 | 2.47 | 2.12 | 14.11 | 4.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.48 | 0.42 | 0.36 | 0.73 | 0.15 |
| Div Yield | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.68 | 0.54 | 0.47 | 1.06 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BAP's fair value at $494.47 vs the current price of $321.97, implying +53.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $494.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $396.50 (P10) to $678.11 (P90), with a median of $505.94.
BAP's current P/E of 16.3x compares to the industry median of 11.1x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +47.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover BAP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $408.00 (range: $408.00 — $408.00), implying +26.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BAP trades at the 7770th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BAP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5740.0% to approximately $507. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.