MODEL VERDICT
BARK, Inc. (BARK) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 61 industry peers | $2.68 | +230.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 61 industry peers | $2.31 | +185.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.00 | +270.4% | 100% | 44 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 1.41 | 1.11 | 0.86 | 2.56 | 0.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.07 | 0.83 | 2.34 | 0.68 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.33 | 0.56 | 0.22 | 10.82 | 4.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates BARK's fair value at $3.00 vs the current price of $0.81, implying +270.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 44/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.38 (P10) to $6.00 (P90), with a median of $3.31.
BARK's current P/E of -4.3x compares to the industry median of 25.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -116.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover BARK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $1.50 (range: $1.50 — $1.50), implying +85.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 44/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BARK.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.