MODEL VERDICT
Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. (BBAR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $13.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $16.33 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $19642.09 | +144753.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $20150.55 | +148502.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $19.54 | +44.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $10003.85 | +73674.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $19642.04 | +144752.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $20.08 | +48.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9591.29 | +70632.2% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (25%) | $15142 | $19468 | $23795 | $28121 | $32447 |
| Conservative (41%) | $17039 | $21907 | $26776 | $31644 | $36512 |
| Base Case (62.7%) | $19698 | $25326 | $30954 | $36582 | $42210 |
| Bull Case (85%) | $22349 | $28735 | $35120 | $41506 | $47892 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/FCF | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| P/FFO | 0.37 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 2.55 | 0.96 |
| P/TBV | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/AFFO | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Div Yield | 7.69 | 4.43 | 0.25 | 23.28 | 9.58 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BBAR's fair value at $9591.29 vs the current price of $13.56, implying +70632.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9591.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7032.70 (P10) to $10882.62 (P90), with a median of $8734.17.
BBAR's current P/E of 10.9x compares to the industry median of 11.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -3.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover BBAR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $15.00 — $17.00), implying +18.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BBAR trades at the 2270th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BBAR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6350.0% to approximately $22. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.