MODEL VERDICT
Southern California Bancorp (BCAL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $18.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $18.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $18.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $18.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $18.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $25.79 | +36.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $21.10 | +12.0% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $20.41 | +8.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $3.26 | -82.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $25.79 | +36.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $18.21 | -3.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.10 | +27.9% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $13 | $17 | $22 | $26 | $30 |
| Conservative (21%) | $14 | $19 | $23 | $28 | $33 |
| Base Case (31.5%) | $15 | $20 | $25 | $30 | $36 |
| Bull Case (43%) | $17 | $22 | $28 | $33 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.66 | 19.12 | 9.67 | 75.18 | 22.49 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.74 | 14.80 | 7.17 | 52.62 | 15.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.14 | 13.56 | 7.17 | 36.54 | 9.64 |
| P/FCF | 13.33 | 11.68 | 8.19 | 25.00 | 5.61 |
| P/FFO | 20.86 | 17.46 | 11.63 | 44.91 | 12.16 |
| P/TBV | 1.14 | 1.08 | 0.84 | 1.39 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 23.78 | 19.47 | 11.76 | 47.82 | 12.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.73 | 1.18 | 0.17 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.67 | 2.62 | 2.21 | 3.13 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates BCAL's fair value at $24.10 vs the current price of $18.84, implying +27.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.67 (P10) to $30.67 (P90), with a median of $23.16.
BCAL's current P/E of 9.8x compares to the industry median of 13.4x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -27.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.7x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
3 analysts cover BCAL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $22.00 — $22.00), implying +16.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.1% is 11.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (15.4%), with a Z-score of +1.5σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$28. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BCAL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.5σ, meaning margins are 1.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4940.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.