California BanCorp (BCAL)
Valuation Overview•Is California BanCorp Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 77/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is broadly bullish, projecting solid upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
BCAL demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (25.0% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (29.9% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 35.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $44.8M | +41.0% | +25.0% | +30.1% | +31.5% | |
| EBITDA | $21.0M | — | +57.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $14.3M | +1060.6% | +57.6% | — | +41.8% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.44 | +777.3% | +29.9% | +31.5% | +15.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | $14.3M | +14.5% | +66.8% | +40.0% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 79.6% | 71.1% | 79.0% | 85.6% |
| Operating Margin | 35.9% | 23.5% | 22.6% | 26.3% |
| Net Margin | 26.0% | 16.7% | 16.3% | 15.9% |
| FCF Margin | 25.6% | 25.6% | 22.9% | 18.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $0.40 | $0.44 | +9.1% | ||
| Q2'26 | $0.41 | $0.42 | +2.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | — | $0.50 | — | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.44 | $0.50 | +13.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.39 | $0.48 | +23.1% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.43 | $0.43 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.43 | $0.43 | +0.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.38 | $0.52 | +36.8% |
Total return is +27.3% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +11.6%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +17.7% | +5.3% | — |
| 1Y | +27.3% | +11.6% | +2.4% |
| 3YCAGR | +14.9% | -6.7% | +2.9% |
| 5YCAGR | +6.6% | -5.1% | +2.6% |
| 10YCAGR | +9.3% | -4.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about California BanCorp (BCAL) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, California BanCorp appears Slightly cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
California BanCorp has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $23.84 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $24.67 (implying +14.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
California BanCorp displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 77/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 10.6%.
California BanCorp pays a 0.5% dividend yield, covered by a 5% payout ratio with 1 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.9% buyback yield.
California BanCorp's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +41.0% 1Y revenue growth and +777.3% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +25.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 3 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 4-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +14.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for California BanCorp include: -14.0% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.39x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.