MODEL VERDICT
Beam Therapeutics Inc. (BEAM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $28.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $27.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $27.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $26.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $27.55 | Below threshold | -1.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $14.46 | -49.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $12.98 | -54.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7678.63 | +26880.4% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.43 | 3.26 | 2.14 | 15.54 | 5.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.43 | 3.26 | 2.14 | 15.54 | 5.17 |
| P/S Ratio | 26528.64 | 38.54 | 5.56 | 158970.84 | 64883.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates BEAM's fair value at $7678.63 vs the current price of $28.46, implying +26880.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7678.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.81 (P10) to $29243.16 (P90), with a median of $6692.52.
BEAM's current P/E of -35.1x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -264.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
27 analysts cover BEAM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $40.86 (range: $26.00 — $74.00), implying +43.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BEAM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.