MODEL VERDICT
BankFinancial Corporation (BFIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 290 industry peers | $4.89 | -59.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 308 industry peers | $16.07 | +33.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 308 bank peers | $19.09 | +59.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 234 industry peers | $16.43 | +36.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 290 industry peers | $4.89 | -59.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 282 analyst estimates | $8.57 | -28.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.96 | -8.7% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (5%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 |
| Base Case (-15.1%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (-20%) | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.71 | 14.39 | 13.16 | 38.48 | 9.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.49 | 6.81 | 0.86 | 15.49 | 6.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.10 | 6.29 | 0.78 | 15.05 | 5.91 |
| P/FCF | 18.26 | 17.63 | 9.91 | 28.94 | 7.52 |
| P/FFO | 16.60 | 12.32 | 11.71 | 37.37 | 9.31 |
| P/TBV | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.76 | 1.39 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 23.91 | 14.67 | 13.33 | 73.93 | 22.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.00 | 0.95 | 0.76 | 1.39 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.51 | 2.25 | 1.82 | 3.43 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BFIN's fair value at $10.96 vs the current price of $12.00, implying -8.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.96 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $9.91 (P10) to $12.09 (P90), with a median of $10.98.
BFIN's current P/E of 36.4x compares to the industry median of 14.8x (290 peers in the group). This represents a +145.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover BFIN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BFIN trades at the 9550th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BFIN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.