MODEL VERDICT
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (BHF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $62.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $62.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $62.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $62.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $60.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $71.40 | +14.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $208.86 | +233.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $155.91 | +148.9% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $80.92 | +29.2% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $70.75 | +12.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $302.07 | +382.2% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $94.21 | +50.4% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $133.41 | +112.9% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $106.71 | +70.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $42 | $54 | $66 | $78 | $90 |
| Conservative (7%) | $43 | $55 | $68 | $80 | $92 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $45 | $57 | $70 | $83 | $96 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $46 | $59 | $72 | $85 | $99 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.34 | 6.59 | 1.00 | 11.19 | 5.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 1.55 | 1.64 | 0.58 | 2.35 | 0.75 |
| EV/EBITDA | 1.55 | 1.64 | 0.58 | 2.35 | 0.75 |
| P/FCF | 4.06 | 3.89 | 2.41 | 5.87 | 1.73 |
| P/TBV | 0.47 | 0.54 | 0.19 | 0.73 | 0.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.19 | 0.70 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.42 | 1.22 | 0.26 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates BHF's fair value at $106.71 vs the current price of $62.65, implying +70.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $106.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $93.74 (P10) to $118.53 (P90), with a median of $106.26.
BHF's current P/E of 10.8x compares to the industry median of 12.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -12.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.3x over 4 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
20 analysts cover BHF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $67.50 (range: $65.00 — $70.00), implying +7.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BHF trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BHF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (8.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3050.0% to approximately $44. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.