MODEL VERDICT
BHP Group Limited (BHP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $79.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $79.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $80.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $79.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $76.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $62.17 | -21.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $210.59 | +166.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $74.55 | -5.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $103.70 | +31.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $106.58 | +34.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $94.47 | +19.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $12.94 | -83.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $143.19 | +81.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $139.22 | +76.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $74.50 | -5.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $103.86 | +31.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $93.23 | +17.9% | 100% | 87 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $65 | $73 | $80 | $87 | $94 |
| Conservative (5%) | $67 | $75 | $82 | $90 | $97 |
| Base Case (2.8%) | $66 | $73 | $81 | $88 | $95 |
| Bull Case (4%) | $67 | $74 | $81 | $89 | $96 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.15 | 14.70 | 7.78 | 18.80 | 3.62 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.66 | 8.31 | 4.81 | 12.06 | 2.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.18 | 6.19 | 4.03 | 8.79 | 1.54 |
| P/FCF | 12.06 | 11.79 | 6.04 | 18.31 | 4.81 |
| P/FFO | 9.25 | 9.93 | 4.42 | 11.70 | 2.38 |
| P/TBV | 2.99 | 2.99 | 2.49 | 3.81 | 0.48 |
| P/AFFO | 22.17 | 18.01 | 5.33 | 37.75 | 11.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.86 | 2.83 | 2.44 | 3.57 | 0.43 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.84 | 2.84 | 2.23 | 3.77 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BHP's fair value at $93.23 vs the current price of $79.06, implying +17.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $93.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $89.41 (P10) to $107.88 (P90), with a median of $98.43.
BHP's current P/E of 22.2x compares to the industry median of 20.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +6.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.2x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
31 analysts cover BHP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $71.50 (range: $48.00 — $95.00), implying -9.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (19), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BHP trades at the 2860th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BHP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (41.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3000.0% to approximately $103. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.