MODEL VERDICT
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $93.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $94.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $92.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $90.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $92.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $72.86 | -22.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $64.03 | -31.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $72.81 | -22.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $48.34 | -48.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $74.44 | -20.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $43.87 | -53.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $34.37 | -63.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $88.89 | -4.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $82.69 | -11.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $72.18 | -22.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $48.18 | -48.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.97 | -27.3% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $77 | $86 | $95 | $104 | $113 |
| Conservative (5%) | $78 | $87 | $97 | $106 | $115 |
| Base Case (7.6%) | $80 | $90 | $99 | $108 | $118 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $82 | $92 | $101 | $111 | $121 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.36 | 17.60 | 12.30 | 22.34 | 3.48 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.31 | 17.08 | 13.32 | 20.08 | 2.59 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.96 | 12.90 | 10.34 | 15.25 | 1.64 |
| P/FCF | 25.28 | 21.62 | 7.96 | 38.15 | 11.48 |
| P/FFO | 12.36 | 12.64 | 8.80 | 15.23 | 2.58 |
| P/TBV | 17.79 | 16.19 | 10.87 | 26.31 | 7.84 |
| P/AFFO | 36.62 | 31.67 | 13.99 | 70.81 | 20.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.52 | 7.54 | 5.41 | 16.21 | 4.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.24 | 0.58 | 0.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BJ's fair value at $67.97 vs the current price of $93.51, implying -27.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $59.05 (P10) to $83.19 (P90), with a median of $70.88.
BJ's current P/E of 21.3x compares to the industry median of 16.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +28.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.4x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
27 analysts cover BJ with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $104.67 (range: $95.00 — $114.00), implying +11.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BJ trades at the 3000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BJ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2120.0% to approximately $74. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.