MODEL VERDICT
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $98.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $96.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $102.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $97.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $89.94 | Below threshold | +11.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $120.77 | +22.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $125.14 | +26.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $146.97 | +48.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $64.22 | -35.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $126.67 | +28.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $46.12 | -53.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $324.74 | +228.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $214.51 | +117.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $214.89 | +117.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $137.86 | +39.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $62.10 | -37.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $116.55 | +18.0% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $92 | $101 | $110 | $118 | $127 |
| Conservative (16%) | $97 | $107 | $116 | $125 | $134 |
| Base Case (24.3%) | $104 | $114 | $124 | $134 | $144 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $112 | $122 | $133 | $143 | $154 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.43 | 17.60 | 12.30 | 22.34 | 3.54 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.21 | 16.54 | 13.32 | 20.08 | 2.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.52 | 12.90 | 9.66 | 15.25 | 2.06 |
| P/FCF | 21.51 | 19.99 | 7.96 | 38.15 | 11.73 |
| P/FFO | 11.73 | 11.99 | 8.80 | 15.23 | 2.73 |
| P/AFFO | 29.18 | 28.55 | 13.99 | 57.25 | 14.18 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.35 | 8.63 | 6.17 | 16.21 | 4.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.21 | 0.58 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BJ's fair value at $116.55 vs the current price of $98.79, implying +18.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $116.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $94.45 (P10) to $115.03 (P90), with a median of $104.51.
BJ's current P/E of 24.7x compares to the industry median of 36.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -32.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
27 analysts cover BJ with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $100.00 (range: $95.00 — $105.00), implying +1.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BJ trades at the 1110th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BJ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3890.0% to approximately $60. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.