MODEL VERDICT
Black Hills Corporation (BKH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $75.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $74.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $76.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $76.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $73.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $86.48 | +14.5% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $56.68 | -24.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $87.51 | +15.9% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $84.45 | +11.9% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 12 industry peers | $48.25 | -36.1% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $40.09 | -46.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $50.86 | -32.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $86.45 | +14.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.15 | -5.8% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $60 | $68 | $76 | $84 | $92 |
| Conservative (5%) | $62 | $70 | $78 | $86 | $94 |
| Base Case (3.6%) | $61 | $69 | $77 | $85 | $93 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $61 | $70 | $78 | $86 | $94 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.09 | 16.84 | 13.47 | 23.95 | 3.63 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.73 | 18.07 | 16.42 | 21.84 | 2.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.15 | 11.64 | 10.88 | 13.96 | 1.30 |
| P/FFO | 8.68 | 8.49 | 6.97 | 11.69 | 1.58 |
| P/TBV | 2.80 | 2.83 | 1.80 | 4.15 | 0.86 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.45 | 1.48 | 1.10 | 1.94 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.08 | 1.99 | 1.55 | 2.75 | 0.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates BKH's fair value at $71.15 vs the current price of $75.50, implying -5.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.06 (P10) to $82.53 (P90), with a median of $75.01.
BKH's current P/E of 19.3x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -12.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.1x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
15 analysts cover BKH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $86.00 (range: $81.00 — $91.00), implying +13.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BKH trades at the 5380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BKH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1330.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.