Black Hills Corporation (BKH)
Valuation Overview•Is Black Hills Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a peer premium multiple, but this multiple is justified by a strong intrinsic cash flow value.
Fragile underlying quality score of 43/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
BKH struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, the balance sheet carries elevated leverage, requiring careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-3.3% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. The company maintains healthy operational efficiency with a 23.3% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $780.7M | +8.6% | -3.3% | +6.4% | +6.2% | |
| EBITDA | $274.7M | — | +5.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $131.0M | +6.8% | +4.1% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.73 | +1.8% | +0.1% | +1.7% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$91.2M | -488.0% | -95.5% | +8.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 35.7% | 37.4% | 35.7% | 37.5% |
| Operating Margin | 23.3% | 22.4% | 21.2% | 22.4% |
| Net Margin | 12.6% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.4% |
| FCF Margin | -13.7% | 3.1% | -5.9% | -13.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.88 | $1.79 | -4.8% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.37 | $1.41 | +2.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.45 | $0.45 | +0.0% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.38 | $0.38 | +0.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.92 | $1.87 | -2.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.20 | $1.37 | +14.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.48 | $0.35 | -27.1% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.29 | $0.33 | +13.8% |
Total return is +34.9% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +9.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +6.5% | -2.8% | — |
| 1Y | +34.9% | +9.9% | +4.9% |
| 3YCAGR | +9.7% | -10.2% | +13.0% |
| 5YCAGR | +4.8% | -8.5% | +18.9% |
| 10YCAGR | +4.4% | -9.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Black Hills Corporation (BKH) valuation, health, and returns.
Black Hills Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Slightly expensive versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +22.4% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $89.07)
Black Hills Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $89.07 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $64.68 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $84.50 (implying +16.2% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Black Hills Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 43/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 4.9%.
Black Hills Corporation pays a 3.7% dividend yield, covered by a 68% payout ratio with 41 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Black Hills Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +8.6% 1Y revenue growth and +1.8% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -3.3%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 15 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +16.2% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Black Hills Corporation include: -11.8% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.16x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.