MODEL VERDICT
Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $75.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $90.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $88.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $85.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $85.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $134.01 | +77.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $114.04 | +50.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $110.30 | +45.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $195.60 | +158.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $106.42 | +40.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $166.72 | +120.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $105.15 | +38.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $259.16 | +242.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $258.73 | +241.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $110.82 | +46.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $196.65 | +159.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $128.91 | +70.3% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $60 | $68 | $76 | $84 | $92 |
| Conservative (5%) | $61 | $70 | $78 | $86 | $94 |
| Base Case (7.9%) | $63 | $71 | $80 | $88 | $97 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $65 | $73 | $82 | $90 | $99 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.13 | 13.98 | 3.86 | 26.45 | 6.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.72 | 11.57 | 3.72 | 21.58 | 5.37 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.14 | 9.24 | 3.28 | 13.28 | 3.31 |
| P/FCF | 13.07 | 11.51 | 3.25 | 32.52 | 9.23 |
| P/FFO | 9.80 | 10.26 | 3.27 | 15.78 | 3.82 |
| P/AFFO | 13.79 | 14.23 | 3.65 | 24.39 | 6.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.53 | 3.63 | 2.14 | 4.55 | 0.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.76 | 0.41 | 1.26 | 0.31 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BLDR's fair value at $128.91 vs the current price of $75.72, implying +70.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $128.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $112.28 (P10) to $133.96 (P90), with a median of $122.82.
BLDR's current P/E of 19.5x compares to the industry median of 28.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -31.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.1x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
43 analysts cover BLDR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $109.92 (range: $93.00 — $143.00), implying +45.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (20), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BLDR trades at the 2940th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BLDR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 25830.0% to approximately $271. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.