MODEL VERDICT
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $58.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $58.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $60.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $57.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $58.62 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $95.61 | +64.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $90.49 | +55.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $68.56 | +17.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $120.75 | +107.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $107.86 | +85.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $124.10 | +113.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $107.39 | +84.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $115.78 | +98.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $70.33 | +20.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $120.17 | +106.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.49 | +52.0% | 100% | 84 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $47 | $54 | $61 | $68 | $75 |
| Conservative (7%) | $48 | $55 | $62 | $70 | $77 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $49 | $57 | $65 | $72 | $80 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $51 | $59 | $67 | $74 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.05 | 19.98 | 13.29 | 31.94 | 7.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.55 | 18.19 | 13.76 | 25.77 | 4.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.30 | 8.88 | 7.49 | 17.73 | 3.57 |
| P/FCF | 10.40 | 9.19 | 8.22 | 14.90 | 2.59 |
| P/FFO | 47.35 | 10.09 | 6.00 | 175.84 | 66.06 |
| P/AFFO | 47.19 | 10.72 | 6.43 | 221.62 | 85.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.46 | 3.89 | 2.13 | 7.00 | 1.63 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.98 | 3.02 | 2.28 | 4.20 | 0.70 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BMY's fair value at $88.49 vs the current price of $58.22, implying +52.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 84/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $83.34 (P10) to $98.57 (P90), with a median of $90.85.
BMY's current P/E of 16.9x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -15.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.0x over 5 years. Signal: Discount.
41 analysts cover BMY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $62.00 (range: $40.00 — $75.00), implying +6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (20), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 84/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BMY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (5.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5870.0% to approximately $24. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.